Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Syazwani Kepli · Yasmin Bani · Anitha Rosland · Nisful Laila ·International Journal of Economics and Management ·2021 ·JEL: G21, E44

Financial institutions like commercial banks play important role in the financial system by helping countries to grow and provide capital and platform for investors. However, banks need to be able to generate income in their lending business and perform efficiently. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) is one of the tools to determine the efficiency of lending institutions in which reflect the quality of the credit portfolio as well as the health of the banking sector. High levels of NPLs in the banking system places the banks in risky situation which may lead to limited financial activities and consequently lower investment and growth. Motivated by this scenario, this study examines the determinants of NPLs in the Malaysian banking system. Using annual data from 1988 to 2018, the study estimates the short and long-run dynamics of several determinants using the Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach. The empirical results demonstrate mixed results. In the long-run, exchange rate is positive and significantly related to non-performing loans, while industrial production and money supply are negative and significant. However, inflation does not have significant effect on NPLs in Malaysia. The findings of this study is useful in assisting the banking institutions and policy makers to design macro and fiscal policies.

Ke-Chyn Ng · Mui-Yin Chin ·International Journal of Economics and Management ·2021 ·JEL: F14, F31

This study examined the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the level of international trade between Malaysia and China using 45 observations spanning from 2010 quarter 1 to 2021 quarter 1. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was adopted to compute the exchange rate fluctuations. International trade between Malaysia and China was selected in this study as, since 2009, China has consistently been Malaysia's top trading partner. Besides, to produce precise output, this study employed two models: the export and import models. The empirical results, derived from Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling, suggested that exchange rate fluctuations had a negative but statistically insignificant impact on exports. In contrast, exchange rate fluctuations had a positive and statistically significant impact on imports. This result implied that importers from Malaysia were generally risk-takers, as they tended to trade significantly during periods of high exchange rate fluctuation. However, to avoid losses for both exporters and importers due to exchange rate fluctuations, policymakers from both countries should ensure that facilities for exchange rate hedging become more convenient and straightforward for traders so that international trade continues to bloom for both countries.

Fazelina Sahul Hamid · Muhamed Zulkhibri ·Institutions and Economies ·2019 ·JEL: E44; E52

This paper examines the effectiveness of bank lending channels in ASEAN countries. The main objective of this paper is to identify whether the effectiveness of bank lending channels in ASEAN differs based on the countries’ financial structure, banks’ fundamentals and ownership type. The study makes use of unbalanced panel data of 214 commercial banks in nine ASEAN countries for the period from 2001 to 2015. Analysis using dynamic GMM estimators finds that the bank lending channel is more effective in CLMV countrieswhich have a less-developed financial sector compared to ASEAN-5 countries which have a moredeveloped financial sector. Particularly, we find that smaller banks with less liquidity have a broader scope to expand their financing portfolios when interest rates rise. We also find that foreign banks in ASEAN-5 countries andstate-owned banks in ASEAN countries weaken the effect of monetary policy transmissions. However, local banks are vulnerable to changes in monetary policy. Further analyses confirm that the influence of ownership structure on credit growth is partly driven by the differences in the banks’ specific characteristics.Our findings suggest that theeffectiveness of bank lending channel depends on financial structure, bank fundamentals and ownership structure. The regulators need to take this into account to ensure that the changes in monetary policy achieve the desired objectives.

J. M. Shukri · Muzafar Shah Habibullah · Roseziahazni Abdul Ghani · M. A. M. Suhaily ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2021 ·JEL: E43, E52, F31, F32, F33, F41

The aim of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium of exchange rates and identify the roles of macroeconomics fundamentals affecting exchange rates using Malaysian data spanning 1970 to 2019. This study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to examine the long-run relationships or cointegration among variables and the dynamic effect within variables in the short-run over the sample period. The results suggest that inflation rate and national income growth rate play important roles in influencing exchange rate movement. The results also reveal that the misalignment of exchange rates is quite small and stable during 1988 to 2019, except for 2015 which was attributed to the weaker growth in China. Consecutively, this study suggests that the parity condition is only important in the long-run in explaining exchange rates behaviour for the sample country.

Dhakir Abbas Ali · Fuadah Johari · Mohammad Haji Alias ·Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies ·2019

The quality of trade data is essential for any empirical study that uses them to construct a variable representing trade. However, previous studies have largely ignored the issue of trade data discrepancy. This discrepancy occurs when a country's claim on sectoral bilateral trade is different from the value reported by its trade partner. Using a size ratio and correlation coefficient computed from the values reported by both parties of bilateral trades, this study examines trade data discrepancy in 20 trade sectors from 1987 to 2016 between Malaysia and its three major Asian trade partners, i.e. China, Singapore and Japan. We detect alarming discrepancy in Malaysia's trade data. We also find that this discrepancy depends on the trade partner, time and trade sector. This study calls for attention of Malaysian policymakers regarding the possibility of customs mismanagement. We recommend that future empirical studies utilising trade in the analysis to either reconcile the data or to deploy both data sources in the econometric analysis as a robustness check.

Nur Farah Zafirah Zulkiflee · Nurbaizura Borhan · Mohd Fikri Hadrawi ·Pertanika Journal of Social Science and Humanities ·2022

An increase in the crime rate may jeopardize a country’s development and economic growth. Thus, understanding the relationship between crime and a few determinants is crucial in sustaining the economic growth in Malaysia. The four determinants used in this research are economic growth, population, education level, and inflation rate. The data covers the period from 1984 to 2019, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approaches were used in this research. The findings showed that only the population has a significant positive impact on crime rates for long-term and short-term relationships. Meanwhile, economic growth and education level have a significant long-term positive effect on the crime rate. On the other hand, the inflation rate did not significantly impact the crime rate in long-term and short-term relationships. Interestingly, it was found in the findings that the crime rate and population showed a bidirectional causal relationship indicating that the past population values are useful for a better prediction of the current crime rate and vice versa. Thus, the Malaysian government should encourage people to cooperate with the enforcement authorities to deter crime for future environmental safety effectively.

Malik Cahyadin · Tamat Sarmidi ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2019

The study aims to estimate the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), labour, and external debt on economic growth in Indonesia and Malaysia over the period 1980-2016. The fndings are expected to serve as a reference for macroeconomic policies in Indonesia and Malaysia. Employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), we fnd that FDI, labour force and external debt have a signifcant impact on the economic growth in the long- and short- run in both countries. Statistically, the estimated models are stable. Therefore, it is recommended that the authorities in Indonesia and Malaysia should concentrate on attracting more quality FDI infows and properly manage external debts as well as high-skilled labour force, which are vital to economic growth.

Nur Syazwani Mazlan · Farah Yushanis Fadzilah · Saifuzzaman Ibrahim ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2019

This paper examines the impact of globalisation on the level of human development in Malaysia. It also investigates the roles of other potential determinants of human development such as foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness and international migration on Human Development Index (HDI) in Malaysia. We employ the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) on the annual time series data covering the period from 1980 to 2017. The results confrm a positive and signifcant long run relationship between globalisation and FDI with HDI in Malaysia. However, the results imply a negative short and long run relationship of both trade openness and international migration with HDI. Therefore, the results suggest for policies to be focused and geared towards fostering globalisation and attracting the infows of FDI if the country’s main agenda is to improve the level of human development.

Siti Marsila Mhd Ruslan · Kasypi Mokhtar ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2020

This study examines the price differences between Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah from 2004 using quantitative and qualitative methods. For quantitative research, we employ disaggregate monthly consumer price indices for nine types of goods and services. Based on the Johansen co-integration test, the results reveal that the long-run relationship only exists for transport group. The findings using Granger pair-wise causality test indicated that the prices in Peninsular Malaysia do not determined the price in Sabah. Qualitative research was further conducted via interviews with stakeholders of shipping providers, port authority, government and special interest group show that the price disparity between Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah occurred due to trade imbalance, sluggish economic activities, poor accessibility between port and retailers, insufficient infrastructure and technical facilities and political sentiment.

Muhamad Rias K V Zainuddin · Md Shafiin Shukor · Muhamad Solehuddin Zulkifli · Amirul Hamza Abdullah ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2021 ·JEL: F10, F14

The recent pandemic outbreak has distorted international trade flows as the global economic activity reaches a nearstandstill due to stricter movement control imposed by most countries worldwide. Despite gaining the researcher’s attention, the impact of Covid-19 on trade performances are still relatively understudied. Hence, this study aims to analyse the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak on the bilateral sectoral export for Malaysia. This study employs Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) regressions to analyse the sectoral impact in gravity models. The findings provide new perspectives on the varying impacts of the current pandemic outbreak on sectoral trade performances. The dummy variables that represent the existence of Covid-19 have significantly reduced bilateral exports for 11 sectors while increased the exports for seven sectors. Meanwhile, the severity of the Covid-19 outbreak (measured by the number of new cases and death cases) in Malaysia has negative impacts on 14 sectors. The reason for this is that when the current pandemic outbreak in Malaysia is more severe, the government has to enforce stricter movement controls that affect productions and reduce exports. On the other hand, the severity of the Covid-19 outbreak in trading partners has positive impacts on the export for 13 sectors in Malaysia. This is because the more severe pandemic outbreak in trading nations causes lower production capacities and thus higher dependence on imported goods. Differences between the impact of Covid-19 existence and severity by sectors should serve as a red flag for Malaysia’s policymakers to take immediate actions to minimise the impact of the ongoing pandemic outbreak and maximise gains from sectors that have higher demand post Covid-19. The net negative impact on the export performance further reiterates the need for government intervention policies to ensure domestic firms can withstand the current tide, which then minimises the social and economic impacts and helps the economy to recover.

Chin-Hong Puah · Choi-Meng Leong · Abu Mansor Shazali · Evan Lau ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2018

BNM has discarded the use of monetary targeting due to the speeding up of financial reforms as the relationship between money and important macroeconomic indicators in Malaysia has weakened. However, the implementation of the interest rate targeting requires the authorities to alter the policy rate recurrently. Alternatively, the authorities may consider monetary targeting, which provides the ease of control of monetary aggregates, provided that a stable demand for money function can be derived. Nevertheless, financial liberalization has greatly affected the stability of money demand. Thus, this study estimated the demand for money function in Malaysia by considering the effect of the financial development in which a Divisia monetary aggregate has been constructed as an alternative measure of money and a monetization variable has been included in the function. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and error correction model are utilized to estimate the demand for money function. The empirical findings indicate that a plausible demand for money function is derived using Divisia M2. Furthermore, monetization appears as an important variable that contributes to a stable money demand. The presence of a stable Divisia M2 money demand has reassured the usefulness of monetary aggregate as the indicator for monetary policy purposes. Monetary targeting provides alternative policy target choice for the conduct of monetary policy. Divisia monetary aggregates can also serve as the alternative money measurement apart from the conventional money supply

Tanja Kuzman · Jelisaveta Lazarevic · Milan Nedeljkovic ·Economic Analysis and Policy ·2022

This paper studies the conditionality in the relationship between capital flows liberalisation, macroprudential policies, and credit cycles in emerging market (EM) economies. Using quarterly data for 16 EM economies, we document the effectiveness of broad macroprudential measures in containing credit cycles in the EM economies. More importantly and in line with theory, we find that the effect of liberalisation of capital inflows on the excessive credit dynamics is conditional on the stance of the macroprudential regulation. When the macroprudential framework is tight, the liberalisation of capital inflows does not have a statistically significant effect on the excessive credit dynamics. In contrast, in economies with a lax macroprudential framework, the liberalisation of capital inflows may amplify credit expansion. The results provide a rationale to explain often conflicting findings in the earlier empirical literature.

Rusli Latimaha · Zakaria Bahari · Nor Asmat Ismail ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2019

In this paper, the authors use dynamic panel data in order to assess the linkages between the cost of living, income inequality, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population and unemployment rate with respect to the street crime rate in Malaysia. More specifcally, the investigation considers whether the following could be capable of generating any difference in the crime rate observed across many types of street crime. The F-test, Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier test and Hausman tests affrm the most preferred model to explain criminal behaviour is by using Fixed Effects Model almost for all types of street crime. The fndings of the estimated coeffcients reveal that the cost of living is negatively related to all street crime types and not signifcant as well as unemployment rate. There is a motivation towards street crime not to earn a living or jobless, but other motivating push factors that relate to the personalities of the offenders such as drug addiction. Moreover, income inequality is only signifcant in terms of total street crime and unarmed robbery gang estimation models as well as GDP per capita and population in snatch and theft estimation models. Interestingly, we extend the by changing the defnition of crime into percentage and the results show that the cost of living is signifcant with the correct sign and has a positive relationship with all types of street crime rates except for snatch and theft estimation models. The GDP per capita is also a main infuencer on all types of street crime rates and has a negative relationship. Finally, the unemployment rate is only signifcant in the unarmed robbery estimation models and has a positive relationships as well as income inequality variable in total street crime and unarmed robbery gang estimation models. This street crime has been shown to be sensitive to the change in unemployment rate and income inequality and also have positive linkages.

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary · Han-Phoumin · Ehsan Rasoulinezhad ·Economic Analysis and Policy ·2022 ·JEL: H81, G21

The main objective of this paper is to identify the determining factors of the optimal credit guarantee ratio in four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), namely Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, by employing statistical techniques and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. The empirical findings prove that the loan default ratio is the optimal credit guarantee ratio’s main determining factor. The empirical findings confirm that the credit guarantee ratio needs to be increased in the ASEAN region to help SMEs survive in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and for the post-COVID-19 economic recovery. The results show that the credit guarantee ratio should vary for different countries based on the macroeconomic climate and for each bank or, in other words, for groups of banks with similar financial soundness. The practical policy recommendations are establishing a regional credit guarantee scheme (RCGS) and evaluating banks’ soundness for setting the optimal credit guarantee ratio.

Joshua Aizenman · Gazi Salah. Uddin · Tianqi Luo · Ranadeva Jayasekera · Donghyun Park ·NBER Working Paper Series ·2022 ·JEL: E52,E58,F42

This paper examines whether prudential policies help to reduce sovereign bond vulnerability to global spillover risk in ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand). We measure sovereign vulnerability within a risk connectedness network among sovereign bonds. The direct effect is that markets with tighter prudential policies have significantly smaller spillovers from the Treasury yield shocks of other regional and global economies. The sum of indirect and direct effects indicates that prudential policies reduce sovereign spillover risk in the long term. These findings suggest prudential policies have dual efficiency in sovereign risk regulation and Treasury internationalization.